The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is heating up as the 2024 season nears its end. Currently, the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders are neck and neck, both teams sharing a dismal 2-12 record. As the stakes rise, these struggling franchises are aggressively vying for a shot at transforming their futures—particularly in pursuit of a franchise quarterback.
The Giants' Historical Struggles and Present Challenges
The Giants' journey through this season has been marred by a painful nine-game losing streak. Historically, the team has had the prestigious No. 1 pick only twice, drafting Kyle Rote in 1951 and Tucker Frederickson in 1965. Now, with their eye on prospects like Shedeur Sanders from the Colorado Buffaloes and Cam Ward from the Miami (FL) Hurricanes, they are hoping to break their losing cycle.
The Giants have faced instability at the quarterback position, with Tim Boyle potentially stepping in due to injuries sidelining Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. Their upcoming fixtures against the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, and Indianapolis Colts offer them limited opportunities to add to their win column.
According to simulation models, the Giants' chance of clinching the No. 1 pick stands at 38.6%. However, these models also suggest they could manage to end the season with a total of three wins.
Raiders’ Stumble and the Search for Redemption
Not far behind the Giants, the Las Vegas Raiders are enduring a ten-game losing streak, a stark contrast to their promising 2-2 start early in the season. The Raiders have been in this position before, having held the league's top draft pick once since 1970, choosing JaMarcus Russell in 2007. With shifting needs, they, too, are on the hunt for a quarterback to lead them back to prominence.
Desmond Ridder may continue leading the charge at quarterback in the face of an injury to Aidan O’Connell, who is potentially out due to a knee issue. The Raiders' remaining schedule includes matches against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Chargers. Like the Giants, the simulation models predict they could wrap up the season with three wins, giving them a 20.31% likelihood of securing the coveted draft position.
The Wider Contest
In addition to the Giants and Raiders, five other teams maintain a realistic, albeit faint, hope of snagging the top draft pick. The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans each have recorded a 3-11 standing. Among these teams, the Browns face a challenging road, with upcoming games against the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and a home match against the Miami Dolphins. Yet, they possess a 13.32% chance according to the simulation models, thanks in part to starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson over Jameis Winston against Cincinnati.
The Patriots, potentially looking to strengthen their roster, will take on the Buffalo Bills twice and the Chargers once before concluding their campaign. This mix of teams hovering around the brink of despair encapsulates the competitive and unpredictable world of NFL football, where fortunes can swing dramatically through a single draft pick.
As the season nears its closure, the stage is set for a dramatic final stretch. In the NFL, the battle at the bottom can, paradoxically, be as compelling as the race for the playoffs. Each team vying for that game-changing first pick is not just looking to finish last by record but aims to start first in terms of rebuilding for the future. For the Giants and Raiders, this draft may well represent a lifeline to revitalization. As the season's final chapters unfold, who will seize it? The answer to that question will echo through the halls of the draft podium next year.